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Early predictors of reading

The skills that pointed to later reading

The short answer

Which early skills best predict how well a child will learn to read?

The National Early Literacy Panel found six early skills with medium to large links to later reading and spelling, including letter knowledge, awareness of sounds in words, rapid naming, and writing letters or one's own name. The links held after IQ and family income were taken into account.

What the research found

  • 8 × Reported by a research review
  1. The National Early Literacy Panel found six early skills with medium to large links to later reading and spelling.

    In the source’s own words“six variables representing early literacy skills or precursor literacy skills had medium to large predictive relationships with later measures of literacy development.”
    Reported by a research reviewSource 1, Executive Summary, p. vii
  2. One of the six is rapid naming: how fast a child can name a random row of letters or digits.

    In the source’s own words“rapid automatic naming (RAN) of letters or digits: the ability to rapidly name a sequence of random letters or digits”
    Reported by a research reviewSource 1, Executive Summary, p. vii
  3. The panel says these six kept their predictive power even after IQ and family income level were taken into account.

    In the source’s own words“maintained their predictive power even when the role of other variables, such as IQ or socioeconomic status (SES), were accounted for.”
    Reported by a research reviewSource 1, Executive Summary, p. vii
  4. For later decoding, the panel reported a strong average link with letter knowledge across 52 studies.

    In the source’s own words“Children’s AK yielded a strong relationship of 0.50 averaged across 52 studies involving 7,570 children.”
    Reported by a research reviewSource 1, Chapter 2, p. 60
  5. Being able to write letters or one's own name is also on the panel's list of six.

    In the source’s own words“writing or writing name: the ability to write letters in isolation on request or to write one’s own name”
    Reported by a research reviewSource 1, Executive Summary, p. vii
  6. The National Reading Panel report says awareness of sounds in words, measured at the start of kindergarten, is one of the two best predictors of how well children will learn to read.

    In the source’s own words“PA measured at the beginning of kindergarten is one of the two best predictors of how well children will learn to read.”
  7. A review of dyslexia research reports a study in which letter knowledge and sound awareness at age 4.5 predicted decoding at age 5.5.

    In the source’s own words“letter knowledge and phoneme awareness measured at 4.5 years predicted decoding skills at 5.5 years.”
  8. The same review reports that spoken language at age 3.5 predicted those foundations: letter knowledge, rapid naming and sound awareness.

    In the source’s own words“Language at 3.5 years predicted the foundations for decoding: namely letter knowledge, RAN, and phoneme awareness”

What this means at home

  • Letter knowledge and hearing the sounds in words are worth early attention.
  • Writing letters and their own name is on the panel's list too.
  • A link is not a cause. Only some of these skills have been shown to raise reading when taught.
  • The free two-minute check shows which of these skills your child has.

What the research does not tell us

  • The early literacy panel warns that predicting is not the same as causing: only some of these skills have been shown to raise reading when taught.
  • The panel says these measures predicted reading at the end of kindergarten or start of first grade better than later growth.
  • The dyslexia review says screening is not simple, because risk and protective factors work together.

Sources

We read each of these ourselves on October 9, 2026. Follow the links to read them too.

  1. Developing Early Literacy: Report of the National Early Literacy Panel. National Early Literacy Panel; National Institute for Literacy. 2008.The report of a U.S. panel that combined the results of published studies of children from birth to age 5 (and kindergarten) to find which early skills predict later reading and which kinds of programs build them.www.nichd.nih.gov/sites/default/files/publications/pubs/documents/NELPReport09.pdf
  2. Report of the National Reading Panel: Teaching Children to Read: An Evidence-Based Assessment of the Scientific Research Literature on Reading and Its Implications for Reading Instruction: Reports of the Subgroups. National Reading Panel; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, U.S. National Institutes of Health. 2000.The full report of a panel convened at the request of the U.S. Congress, which reviewed experimental studies of reading instruction and combined their results in meta-analyses.www.nichd.nih.gov/sites/default/files/publications/pubs/nrp/Documents/report.pdf
  3. Reading disorders and dyslexia. Charles Hulme and Margaret J. Snowling; Current Opinion in Pediatrics, volume 28, issue 6, pages 731-735. 2016.An open-access, peer-reviewed review article by two reading researchers summarizing studies of dyslexia and reading comprehension difficulties, including studies that followed at-risk children from preschool.pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5293161/

How we write these pages

  1. We read the source itself, not a news story about it.
  2. Every finding on a page names its source and where in the source it is found, so you can check it.
  3. We say how strong the evidence is, in the words of the people who reviewed it.
  4. We say what the research does not tell us. Most studies are done in schools, and no study can say what one child needs.
  5. If we get something wrong, tell us at hello@sounditoutreading.com and we will correct the page.

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